Antarctica offers 30-50 year window to plan for sea level rise: study

Scientists have identified the next three to five decades as a critical window for anticipating and preparing for Antarctic ice loss and its contribution to rising seas, new research reveals, reported Xinhua.

The study, under Australia's Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future (SAEF) program, examined how reliably Antarctic ice loss can be projected over the coming decades and what this means for sea level rise projections, according to a statement from Monash University released on Thursday.

Published in Nature, the research showed that if ice sheet models accurately reproduce current rates of Antarctic ice loss, they can be used to reliably project the continent's contribution to sea level rise over the next 30 to 50 years.

However, the study found that predictability declines later in the century as processes such as rapid ice sheet retreat become more likely.

"Accurately predicting how much and how fast global sea levels will rise offers vital information for future coastal planning and government policy," said Monash University researcher Felicity McCormack from SAEF, who led the study.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global sea levels could rise by more than 2 meters by 2100 under high-emission scenarios due to the large-scale collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Such a rise would inundate a quarter of Australian homes, render parts of the Pacific uninhabitable and displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide, researchers said.

Improved observations and ice sheet models could make short-term sea level projections more reliable, helping Pacific Island governments plan infrastructure, land use and community relocation, they said.