Birth rate in Finland not sufficiently high for age structure

About 700,000 more people would die than be born in Finland by the end of 2060 if the birth rate remained at the level observed now, according to Statistics Finland’s latest population projection.

In the 2060s, only under 40,000 children would be born in Finland per year. In the long term, the birth rate is not sustainable in terms of the age structure.

The current year is the fourth consecutive year when fewer than 50,000 children are born in Finland. These age groups will give birth 30 years from now.

If the birth rate remains low for a long time, its reverberations will extend far into the future. At first, the effect is visible in the number of children born, but in the longer term also in the number of women of childbearing age.

In 2020, the number of births was higher than that of deaths in 53 municipalities. At the observed birth rate, there would be 39 corresponding municipalities in 2030 and only 15 in 2040.

According to the projection, the number of persons aged under 15 would be nearly 200,000 lower at the end of 2060 than at present. A protracted low birth rate would be visible in the size of the working-age population from the 2040s onwards and would also be reflected in the demographic dependency ratio.

The year 2021 will be the sixth year in a row when deaths exceed births in Finland. According to the projection, net immigration will sustain population growth until 2034, when Finland’s population will be 5.6 million. After this, the population will turn to a decline and according to the projection, Finland’s population will already be lower in the 2050s than at present.

In 2020, the population grew in four regions and in Åland. According to the projection, the population would grow only in the regions of Uusimaa and Pirkanmaa and in Åland in 2040.

The 2021 population projection projects the population for 2060 to 5.45 million persons. The population projected for 2060 by Statistics Finland’s population projections made between 2007 and 2021 has varied between 5.3 and 6.2 million. This range reflects the uncertainty associated with population projections over the long term. The biggest difference between the projections made in different years is related to the birth rate assumption.

The number of the population of working age (aged 15 to 64) was highest in Finland in 2009, when their number was 3.55 million in our country. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of working-age people has fallen by 136,000 in Finland. Over the next two decades, it is projected that the working-age population will decrease at a slower pace, i.e. by 76,000 persons by 2040.

Due to the low birth rate, the decline in the working-age population would accelerate in the 2040s. During 2041 to 2050, the working-age population would decrease by 103,000 persons and between 2051 and 2060 by further 133,000 persons. At the end of 2060, the working-age population would number 3.1 million people, which is good 310,000 fewer than at present.

The proportion of people of working age in the population is currently 62 per cent. According to the projection, the proportion will diminish to 60 per cent by 2040 and to 57 per cent by 2060. According to the 2021 projection, the proportion of the working-age population in total population will be higher until 2060 than in the projections made in 2012 and 2015, because due to the lower birth rate, the population will also turn to a decline.

Statistics Finland's latest population projection assumes that the birth rate would remain constant in future. The imputed number of children that women give birth to during their lifetime, i.e. the total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.45.

The projection assumes that Finland’s migration gain from abroad will be 20,000 people during the current year and after that 15,000 people yearly.

The mortality rate is projected to continue declining throughout the projection period. The mortality rate of people aged under 50 is assumed to continue declining similarly to what has been observed when comparing the mortality rates for 1987 to 1991 and 2016 to 2020. The mortality rate of persons aged 50 and over is assumed to fall similarly as observed when comparing the mortality rate during the periods 1997 to 2001 and 2016 to 2020.

Men’s life expectancy is projected to lengthen by close on five years and women’s by good three years by 2040. More detailed information about the projection method can be found in the quality description.