Sudden CO2 crash to have no durable benefit

Finnish Meteorological Institute’s (FMI) Climate Research Programme Director Professor Hannele Korhonen said the sudden and temporary crash of CO₂ in different countries following the coronavirus situation will not have any long-lasting impression on climate change globally and even locally.

“The way countries respond to this current situation and their strategies for compensating economic losses will determine the next changes,” Korhonen told the Daily Finland.

She said if governments implement the project of fossil-free societies through renewable energy, fossil-free transport, and improving energy efficient building, we can expect the coronavirus pandemic would also be beneficial to minimising the climate change.

The professor also emphasised that a rapid return to ‘old normal’ can neutralise all changes.

“There is a high likelihood that 2020 will be the warmest year on record and any influential change will not happen, unless sustainable measures are applied,” she added.

People are experiencing the most considerable carbon drop that has ever happened in the world. Several sources declared that no war, no previous pandemic and no other event has had a dramatic impact on emissions of CO₂ in the last century as coronavirus has have only in a short period.

She said, although it is not still possible to monitor global emissions, current estimation based on proxy data of electricity trends, coal-use and steel-production showed carbon emission has crashed 17 per cent globally compared to the 2019 level. This rate was about 9 per cent over the first four months of 2020.

According to Korhonen, the current total CO₂ emission will be lower than that in last year; however, it does not mean the world is facing a huge climate change.

“Because of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration that is the core element of quantity in terms of progression, climate will inflate in the coming months. The reason of this process can be well illustrated by bathtub analogy: “although the rate at which water from the faucet (=CO₂ emissions) runs into the tub (=atmosphere) has decreased, the leakage out of the tub (=CO₂ removal) is still clearly slower than the flow from the faucet. Hence, the water level (=CO₂ concentration in atmosphere) still increases this year,” she said.

Accordingly, Korhonen mentioned, as we are reopening businesses in different fields, it is not unexpected that emissions will rise again, similar to what happened in China. She believes that the level of CO₂ emission and following that climate changes in the world rely on several factors including the duration and level of lockdown and consumer behaviour as the pandemic continues, and governmental stimulus packages (green stimulus vs. fossil-based)

To prohibit the increasing rate of CO₂ emissions in Finland and to move toward a carbon-neutral society, members of the Climate Change Roundtable present suggestions with consideration of economic recession.