ETLA for stronger measures to earn 2035 carbon neutrality goal

The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) on Tuesday published its first Forecast of Emissions, saying that the Finnish goal of carbon neutrality by 2035 is unfeasible, unless stronger measures are adopted.

ETLA predicted that the rate of decline in Finnish emissions by 2030 is roughly two percent per year. However, to reach carbon neutrality in 2035 the rate should be 7.6 percent per year.

ETLA has attached the emissions forecasting to its traditional cyclical surveys. The emissions prognosis is based on the predicted production per each branch of industry and the predicted household consumption and presumed technological development. ETLA gives separate alternatives for accelerated technological development, for continuation of the recent level and for a no-development scenario.

The ETLA forecast tool predicts greenhouse gas emissions for eight segments, such as agriculture, households and metal and paper industries.

Even in the best scenario, ETLA gives Finland a 5.7 percent annual reduction for the next 5 years, while the worst alternative would bring an increase of 1.1 percent.

Researcher Ville Kaitila, who has compiled the forecast, told the media that ability to reduce the burning of peat for energy would be a key step. Giving up the use of peat is a difficult political issue in Finland due to the interests of the peat industry and landowners with peat reserves.

In 2018, Finnish greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 56.4 million tons of CO2 equivalent while the natural carbon sink was 9.8 million tons.